The Unfulfilled Promise of EOR, Dr S M Farouq Ali, 30 September 2003 , SPE London Section

Dr S M Farouq Ali (farouq@telusplanet.net) of Heavy Oil Recovery Technologies Ltd, Edmonton, Canada, is a SPE distinguished lecturer and also an honorary professor at the University of Calgary. On 30 September 2003 he spoke to the SPE London Section on the "unfulfilled promise of EOR". Mike Tosdevin (m.tosdevin@senergyltd.com), principal reservoir engineer with Senergy Ltd, attended, and presents his overview of the evening.

Dr Ali gave a very thought-provoking overview of the progress made in EOR during the last 50 years. He noted that billions of dollars have been spent on EOR projects with very little production to show for it. He went on to analyse the main reasons for this failure and identified actions which should be taken to ensure greater success in EOR in the future.

Opening with an analysis of energy supply and demand Dr Ali noted that forecasts show world energy demand predicted to increase three-fold between 1997 and 2060. Furthermore one third of the demand in 2060, equal to the present demand of the entire world, is "forecast" to be met by solar and wind power. There is clearly a place for EOR in such a market. Dr Ali defined EOR projects as those which increased oil recovery by reducing the microscopic Sor or improving the vertical sweep efficiency: infill drilling in particular is not included. With this definition there is a world-wide target for EOR of 2,000 billion barrels. He also noted that the typical lead time from screening recovery processes to start-up of a commercial EOR project is between 10 and 20 years. In 1976 there were great expectations for EOR, the NPC (a forum of oil industry executives) forecast that US EOR production in 2003 would amount to 3 million b/d, in fact it currently runs at 680,000 b/d. It is also important to distinguish commercially meaningful EOR projects as distinct from EOR trials. Dr Ali referred to 2,200 EOR tests in Tatarstan alone but then noted that not one of these has made money. From 1986 to the present the number of EOR projects in the US has declined from 500 to about 150. Of these 150, which in total produce 680,000 b/d oil, seventeen are responsible for nearly 500,000 b/d production meaning the remainder average about 1,300 b/d oil each.

Having identified the scarcity of commercially meaningful EOR projects Dr Ali went on to list those processes which had yielded successful projects and their applicability. Steam processes of differing types have been very successful in a number of projects involving heavy oil. Miscible hydrocarbon gas injection and CO 2 injection have been claimed as successful in a number of instances but it is questionable whether they have been economic despite pronouncements that they have. CO2 processes are only likely to be commercial if there is a free source of injection gas.

Why have so few successful EOR projects materialised despite $19 billion having been spent on EOR projects in the US since the oil embargo? Dr Ali pointed the finger firmly at deficient technical work. There is presently no long-term research being conducted into EOR; most oil companies are investing in foreign oil development projects and not EOR research. Moreover, only two universities in Canada are carrying out such work but, in any case, very few commercial ideas originate in universities. Laboratory experiments are often not correctly scaled to field size; even if the correct scaling criteria are known (which sometimes they are not) they are often difficult to achieve. Misleading numerical simulation has often lead to inappropriate projects, a situation made worse by the fact that commercial simulators cannot model molecular diffusion correctly. Geological understanding of the reservoir is often insufficient to assess correctly the likely success of a project. In addition to technical failings there are often commercial/political reasons for project failure. Money from tax incentives is sometimes sufficient to make a project economic even though no additional oil is recovered. It is also easy to redefine the baseline to make a project appear more successful than it really is, thus incorrectly defining success and failure. There is a desire to try new processes for novelty's sake when simple analysis would indicate very low chance of commerciality. Despite the high number of failures there is very little documentation of these failures in the literature and hence no expanding body of wisdom.

Answering questions, Dr Ali acknowledged that commercial EOR projects were more unlikely offshore, where costs are higher and well density lower. Asked about EOR potential outside the US , Dr Ali noted that much of the world's oil occurs in carbonate reservoirs whereas most EOR research has concentrated on sandstones; EOR is even more immature in such reservoirs. For the future, chemical flooding is a promising area for research, particularly micellar floods; there is presently no good EOR process which can target already water-flooded oil reservoirs. For chemical processes it is very important to consider adsorption: the rock surface area in a reservoir 1 mile wide by 2 miles long by 50 ft thick is approximately equal to the surface area of the earth, if the chemical is adsorbed onto the rock its influence on the displacement process will be significantly diminished. For EOR to make a significant impact on world oil production (perhaps accounting for 10% as a target) a 15-year plan needs to be put in place rather than a sequence of 1 - 2 year programmes.

To summarise Dr Ali said that there was a mix of scientific, technical and commercial reasons for EOR's past failures; that good research and technical judgement will be required to make EOR a success in the future; that government intervention is necessary to provide the incentive to oil companies; and, that the industry needs to share knowledge to avoid continually making the same mistakes.

Dr S M Farouq Ali (right) Presenting at the 24 th Annual Workshop and Seminar of the IEA Collaborative Project on EOR, September 2003

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